Today Nawaz leaving for Three-day Turkey visit

ISLAMABAD: On Monday, September 16, 2013, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s maiden visit to one of the closest and brotherly country Turkey is beginning. It would open new vistas and horizons of ties of the two historically close countries since it will mark the start of an unprecedented era of cooperation in numerous fields.

The prime minister is scheduled to stay in Turkey for three days and will engage in back-to-back interactions and result-oriented meetings with the top leadership of the host country. During his stay in Turkey, the prime minister will also meet President Abdullah Gul and co-chair the third session of the High Level Cooperation Council (HLCC).

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No devaluation, no compromise over the value of Rupee:

 

Finance minister has showed great deal of anguish over the issue of depreciation of rupee, as predicted by the eminent economic expert of the country. Considering the seriousness of the issue Dar has decided to comment on the issue public ally, this shows his great concern about the value of rupee. The recent deal with IMF is under great discussion by the economist and the recent shift about the deprecation in rupee they considered is the aftereffects of that deal. Ishaq Dar comments over the issue that “I am disappointed to come across comments and analysis by certain eminent economic experts that the rupee is bound to depreciate to 114 (to a dollar) as a result of some implicit understanding between the government of Pakistan and IMF.”

He totally reject the idea that Government and IMF has entered into an agreement to depreciate the value of rupee by 14%. He just throws out this notion and rejects this perception that the value of rupee will fall 14%within a year against dollar. If it is then it will have great impact on foreign exchange rates. He further embarks over the issue and tries to pacify the jolting markets and gave a very strong verdict and called the critics “Pseudo Intellectuals” He further said that there is no adjustment over the depreciation of rupee against dollar with IMF. “Let me assure you that there is neither any explicit nor implicit understanding with the IMF on the devaluation of rupee.”

His recent comments are the aftereffects of IMF report that is based on real effective exchange rate that is showing that rupee will be devalued by 7.7% during 2013-14. On the other hand, economist did great criticism over the IMF assessment; they claimed that the country economy will be cleaned out. If we see the interbank market situation the rupee was traded at the value of 105 against per dollar. But after report its value is more declined in the open market currency rates.The finance minister blamed the speculators who spread such news and thus causing to devaluing the rupee. He said “I am allergic to the words dictated devaluation.” To some extent he is right but IMF report should not be taken non-seriously, it is very serious issue. So is the responsibility to the economic analysts they need to work in a positive way, ishaq was much disappointed when he pointed economists. “I expect all professionals to be more responsible,” he further said that “pessimistic pseudo intellectuals will keep predicting that Pakistan will be a one-tranche country that will miss its key targets again.”

Finance minister was greatly agitated it seems, he said all economists should play a positive role and should work for the nation and on one policy not for their vested interest. He only means not to spread negativism among the people because it will be disastrous for the economy. He said that negotiation with IMF has been done without any compromise over the national interest. The IMF program has been settled on the standards of home-grown reform agenda. Dar is hopeful and optimistic about foreign exchange reserves of the country. He is expecting foreign exchange reserves will be improved up to $20 billion and public debt will be reduce to 57.5% of GDP that is currently 63.5%.

Short-term suspension: PIA stops flights to India, Germany, Netherlands

KARACHI: Faced with shortage of aircraft, the Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) rolled back flights to Germany, Netherlands and India.

A spokesman for the national flag carrier said the decision was taken in the wake of a review of flight operations to find the best way to utilize existing fleet of aircraft, some of which are already busy with the massive Hajj operation. He added, “Flights to Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Delhi and Mumbai were also running below capacity,” The spoke person said, this decision is, however, temporary and the flights to European destination will resume after the end of the “lean season in November.” The decision to discontinue flights has been severely criticized by the airline’s employees who blame the management for doing irreparable damage to the state airliner. It will become difficult for the PIA to attract passengers once they start travelling with other carriers, foresees one of the airline’s unions. PIA was operating six weekly flights to India and one each to Frankfurt and Amsterdam. The airline had to deploy two of its Boeing 777s and as many B-747s for the Hajj flights, which will run till November 18.Joint Action Committee of PIA’s Employees, which represents the pilots, says seat booking volume rose in the last six months and revenue was more than 50 percent on the route of Islamabad to Frankfurt.

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Today Mamnoon Takings Pledge as 12th President of Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: On Monday, Today, President-elect Mamnoon Hussain will take pledge as the 12th president of Pakistan.

Chief Justice of Pakistan Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry would administer the oath. The oath-taking ceremony would be held at the President House at 05:00pm for which invitations were already issued. It is expected that the outgoing President Asif Ali Zardari, who ceased to hold office on Sunday midnight, would attend the ceremony. The Prime Minister, Chief of Army Staff, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, services chiefs, diplomats, federal cabinet members and family members and family friends of President-elect Mamnoon Hussain would be attending the prestigious ceremony which would be historic in its nature because for the first time in the country’s history a democratically elected president would be handing over the charge to another democratically elected president on completion of his mandated five years term. Foundations in the government knowledgeable that around 60 invitation cards were issued to the President-elect to invite his family members, relatives and friends on his installation ceremony as president of Pakistan. It is interesting to note that among the guests at oath-taking ceremony some four former prime ministers including Mir Zafarullah Jamali, Ch Shujaat Hussain, Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani and Raja Pervez Ashraf would likely be present. It is pertinent to mention here that President-elect Mamnoon Hussain has shifted to Awan-I-Sadr some couple of days back and he was introduced to the staff at President House and apprised of the working pattern.

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KSE closes in black after five successive bearish days

The KSE was recovered after the impending threat of attack on Syria, during the day it just try to complete the loss. Earlier part of the day KSE observed a buying trend. Karachi stock exchange benchmark 100-share index has been raised from 83.80 points to 808.48 today after the impending fears of attack on Syria. Market bears five consecutive days the bearish trend. It was only the fear of strike on Syria. Market suffers low market volume of 149 million due to the U.S expected airstrike on Syria. But thanks to the heaven it did not happen in anyway. The market shows great upward trend when the news of attack on Syria is faded away. 359 companies has taken part in market activity, by the end of the day 181 companies closed did great business and 131 have experienced decline in their share value while 45 remained unaffected. While the gold prices in Pakistan remain unaffected. The shares traded during the day worth Rs. 5.9 billion.

Faisal Bilwani of Elixir Research stated that “Pakistan equities closed green after five consecutive negative sessions with a bounce back mainly in index names on institutional buying. Stocks traded volatile with KSE100 testing 22k, however selling at highs pushed stocks down to close with trimmed gains.” He further added that “Pakistan Telecom (PTC PA +5%) led the show hitting upper lock on interest following hopes of progress on 3G license auction while Lucky Cement LUCK PA also gained and traded against sector direction despite ambiguity over cement pricing and capacity utilization going forward.” Thus these are the healthy signs for open market currency in Pakistan.

“The KSE index continued with its bearish trend by opening negatively, however interest in good dividend yielding stocks ended the day for KSE-100 Index in the green. Major shift in sentiment was believed to be due to an ongoing visit by the prime minister to Karachi in order to improve the law and order situation in the city” Said Adeel Jafri of JSGlobal.Trade volume was contracted as compared to Monday tally that was 180 million shares. Bank of Punjab was the leading bank which traded its shares worth 16 million and gained Rs.0.14 that is ended on Rs. 12.02. Fauji Cement was the second leading company which did good trading worth Rs. 13 million shares and gained Rs.1.02 and is clos4ed at the value of Rs 24.32. Followed by National Cleaning Company of Pakistan Limited the foreign investors did the net selling of Rs. 214 million.

Govt Slightest Concerned to Follow Cases against Zardari

ISLAMABAD: Even after relinquishing the charge of President of Pakistan on September 8, Asif Ali Zardari will have little to worry about, as on one hand in the absence of Chairman NAB none of the pending corruption cases against him could be restored while on the other hand the tamed Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) government seemed least bothered about pursuing the corruption cases against him (Zardari) in home as well as abroad.

Some six corruption cases against President Zardari are pending with NAB courts and all of these cases were adjourned sane die when he stepped into the office of President of Pakistan, who under the constitution has immunity against all sort of criminal proceedings till the time he is in the office of the President.  But now he would lose all the perks and privileges when he would relinquish the office of President on September 8 and under the law he would also lose the presidential immunity against criminal proceedings. Interestingly even after losing the presidential immunity and other perks and privileges on September 8 when he would relinquish the office of the President, no corruption cases pending against him in the NAB court could be reopened as the same would require the formal request from the office of the Chairman NAB, the slot vacant for past several months. In the light of the information gathered from various sources it could safely be said that the appointment of new chairman would at least take another month or so because so far no formal meeting between the Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly and Prime Minister, the main consulates in making appointment of Chairman NAB, could take place. Foundations in the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) informed The Nation that the party leadership was least interested in vigorously pursuing the corruption cases against President Zardari and they would let the cases die their natural death in the courts of law. Although soon after taking over the reins of power Prime Minister Mohammad Nawaz Sharif had announced on the floor of the National Assembly that they would make the looters and plunderers of national wealth to cough up each and every penny of the taxpayers money, yet when it comes to practice they were contrary to their claims, as no serious attempt was made by the government to get the money laundering case against President Zardari revived in Switzerland, which was neutralized on technical grounds by the previous government. Legal and constitutional experts were of the view that the case against President Zardari in Switzerland could be revived with a little effort but instead of making some effort to get the case restored the PML-N government was sleeping on the matter raising suspicion of complicity with Pakistan People’s Party.

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US to sell Indonesia Army Helicopters in $500m contract

US: The spoke person said, The US has agreed for the first time to sell new AH-64E Apache attack helicopters to Indonesia.

The deal is worth $500m (£320m), including radar, training and maintenance. Indonesia will purchase eight new Apache helicopters, made by Boeing. The deal was announced during a visit by US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, who is on a tour of South East Asia, to Jakarta. He said, “Providing Indonesia these world-class helicopters is an example of our commitment to help build Indonesia’s military capability.” He added, the deal will help Indonesia respond to “a range of contingencies including counter-piracy operations and maritime awareness”. The US has recently stepped up its diplomatic efforts in East Asia in order to establish a strong presence there in the face of advances by China, correspondents say.

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Lack of triggers prevents investor from business

At the start of this week, country’s large stock exchange is observing monotonous business activity. It seems that the current political chaos has hampered the investors to conduct any activity as if they are playing a waiting game, when all circumstances will turn into their favor. Well it’s just like being at the risk of a volley of eggs to the investor’s forehead, quite idealistic condition. Stock market is not a place to idealize frankly speaking it’s a place to speculate to know the undercurrents and bear the risk. Well, what we have analyzed in the last two days open market rates and volume was insignificant and shareholders hang out on the side-lines to seize upon any chance for selling. It endures, because the local investors do not follow business directions, they only wait for a trigger that can lead them to do some business activity. As the investors is getting use to of political strife that helps to resolve the conflicts what they are directed to do in certain conditions.

Why investors play waiting game:

The KSE standard 100-share index drop 0.55% or 89.76 points to end at the 17,872.15 point level. Trade volume remains insignificant, closed at 150 million shares comparing it with Monday’s closing of 154 million shares. Samar Iqbal, head of equity sales at Topline Securities remarked over this issue “In absence of any triggers, investors preferred to stay on the sidelines as volumes remained low,”Decline in the index-heavyweights, Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC) and MCB Bank, took their toll on the index, while investor interest seemed to shift towards dividend yielding stocks,” he further added. Moreover for investors the making of caretaking government is very important and the upcoming days will define the business lineup and it will help in stabilizing the foreign exchange rates in Pakistan.

Boost in power and fertilizer sector:

Fertilizer and oil stocks Like Hub Power Company boost to the top.it sems that mars and Venus are eventually collided, huge profit-taking comes into the share of Engro Corporation OGDC and Pakistan Oilfields. Telecom sectors maintain its reputation while the rumor of lower international incoming calls rates is in the air. Total companies who participate trading are 327 on Tuesday. On the close of the market the shares of 112 companies are traded on higher rate and the share of 173 companies experience decline in their value. The total value of shares did business was Rs. 3.83 billion. Hub Power company was in spotlight managed to close its business in black in terms of dividend-yielding stock. This all is done due to the exclusive business news announced by HUBCO that the 84 mrgawat New Bong Hydropower Project owned by Hubco’s 75% held subsidiary Laraib Energy, will start working two months before it schedule. This news is enough to grab the interest of the investors, and it has a very positive impact on the parent company’s income statements. Another source of earning has opened for HUBCO through this project.

KSE Fell 390 points as local, foreign investors off load

The Karachi stock exchange showed the declining tendency driven by foreign selling on Monday. It is estimated that local business is not getting affected due to this slanted tendency. The stock exchange lowers down in day trading by 790 points, thus, most of the shares get down due to this effect. Meanwhile the entrepreneurs took the charge and help the stock exchange to regain its lost position somehow by the end of the day in an attempt to strengthen the forex rates.

It is reported that Karachi stock exchange Benchmark 100-share index lost 1.69%or 390.57points by the end of the day. The KSE benchmark 1900- index is closed on 22, 7013 point level. Meanwhile the trade volume shows high tendency up to 232 million shares in comparison with Thursday total of 199 million shares. The stock exchange was closed on Friday. Market is always under the dust of rumors. There were rumors of increase in interest rate that led its charges on the market. It furthers pull the hands of the investors thus killing the KSE trading day to lost 790 points before it getting improved.

At the first day of the week bearish trend has dominated the stock exchange when KSE 100 index was closed at 391 points. Selling was started in bourse when Engro foods touch the lower ground at the beginning of the day, reported analyst. The stock market has lost 1.600 points since the beginning of the new business year.

By taking an overview over the stock market intraday, 338 companies have participated in trading on Monday. By the end of the day 71 companies’ stocks gone higher and 236 companies showed the declining position over their stocks. Thus 31 remain stagnant. The total value of the shares operated all the day was worth Rs. 10.13 billion. The oil and gas sector showed a stable position, the exploration giant oil and gas Development Company closed in black due to its forthcoming dividend business news. 

The announcement regarding dividend is expected today thus attracting the local buyers to take special interest in its stock purchase. Pakistan oil fields and Attock refinery following the same trend and showing full year dividend expectation also, thus make every possibility of increase in stock value.

Fauji cement was the cheer leader with 24.17 million shares, loses the value of its stock Rs.0.79 and finish at Rs. 14.97.followed by Bank of Punjab with 14.73 million shares by losing its stock value of Rs0.61 to close at Rs12.67 and Maple Leaf Cement with 14.61 million shares shows a rising trend Rs0.06 to close at Rs29.75. Foreign institutional investors were buyers of Rs1.07 billion and sellers of Rs851 million, according to data maintained by the National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited. However at the start of the week, confusion is prevailed throughout the day, thus causing of decline of stock market thus affecting the currency exchange rates.

Value of rupee slip against dollar

Pakistan is a country where the burden of payments and debts are the factors that determines the market-driven exchange rates. The pattern of foreign trade growth also plays a vital role in this regard. A country which does not have sufficient foreign exchange holdings, the above mentioned two factors can be threatening for such an economy. We have seen a sudden change in Pakistan’s market economy when import payment’s scale is increasing upward since March following a passive growth in the last eight months.

Since four months, after the announcement of fiscal year budget in June 2013. The average imports monthly are $4.135 billion. On the other hand, export earning average $1,976 billion monthly. So the graph of external payments is still higher. So this factor determines the currency exchange rates. “So, the timing is important,” said the chief forex dealer at a foreign bank. “We had such a large trade deficit on the one hand and on the other the country also made about $1.5 billion external debt payments (mostly to the IMF) during this period.” A senior expert says that this has been a major factor that determines currency exchange rates. This is how rupee is slipping against the dollar.

“If you’ve got to do big external debt servicing, often several times in a month, and with not much in forex reserves, exchange rates will remain under pressure.

Things become even more difficult when imports rise suddenly,” said a central banker. The situation is quite threatening, when market come under the attack of speculation. The interbank rates and open markets have difference in determining the value of rupee. When news of unrest spread into the market, the exchange rates show the ups and down conditions, thus jolted. So there left no purchasing power equivalence between rupee and dollar. Open market currency rate in Pakistan is calculated by banks and cited to the importers and exporters as a pre-indication of the future move of the exchange rate. For instance on June 28, the average rate of one-month dollar and rupee exchange was 100. It denotes that rupee has fallen to 99.66 per dollar at the end of the month of june to 100 by the end of July.

But rupee has lost its value very earlier. Thus identifying the uncertain market condition that could change the external account situation is quite challenging. But interbank se4rvices are doing their utmost effort in this regard. As they can observe the variations and the ups and downs in the actual exchange rate at any given time. By comparing the past working day, thus incur the forward rate that is helpful for importers and exporters. “This mechanism of forward rate quotations has enabled the inter-bank market on the whole to make more realistic projections of exchange rates,” said the treasurer of a large local bank.

Pakistan seeks $2bn from IMF

Well, if there is relief only in loans then why Pakistan’s is getting keener about investment. The government of Pakistan in order to complete the deficit is seeking more aid. Is this can add worth to nation like Pakistan and the economy like Pakistan? The outcome of this aid would be only the higher exchange rates and the diminishing value of local currency and what else is the effect of this aid. The 3billion dollar deficit between the external monetary outflows and inflows can be filled if the door of IMF is opened for us. So the IMF deputy managing director has ensured to the government of Pakistan to his support for an additional bailout package of 2 billion in loans.

The finance minister of Pakistan has exclusively announced on the fringes of a microfinance meeting. He expected the long term relationship between IMF and Pakistan and is confident despite of $5.3 billion assistance from IMF. Dar is very much confident about the IMF support and said “The IMF’s deputy managing director has promised me to support Pakistan’s request for an additional $2 billion in loans at the IMF’s Executive Board meeting on September 4,” further he explained the $5.4 billion bailout package is also expected to be approved in the meeting. Dar also disclose the fact that he has requested IMF to provide $3 billion in the first year of three year monetary aid program. In order to payback the outstanding debts that are more than $3 billion that is expected to be matured later this year. Well, the good news is this that Dar is committed to refund the $1.2 billion in the next fiscal year to IMF.

So the request for front cash loaded program does not seem to be matured by IMF. While the resources said the chances are high that IMF will follow the same scale like viewing progress on the agreed agenda. The resources further added that according to previous experiences of IMF that proved failure, IMF can take the risk this time. However, Dar has revealed his plain and doing every attempt to trap the lion. As he said, “I’ve also proposed to the IMF management that from the second year of the programme the tranches may be released on a quarterly basis,” Both, the IMF and Pakistan agreed to a $5.3 billion last week, but before qualifying for the programme, the country has to implement about half a dozen preconditions followed by a three-year roadmap of reforms.

According to sources, the biggest threat to the programme will be the Rs2.475 trillion tax collection targets which will have to show 26% growth to hit the ambitious goalpost. Any shortfall in revenues will derail the IMF programme, sources said. Dar said Pakistan has already started following the roadmap agreed with the IMF and the world has also started giving positive signals. “After talks with the IMF, international confidence has been restored and its fresh report on Monday, Moody’s said Pakistan is in the right direction.” So Pakistan’s economy has to face the biggest challenge in terms of IMF. What we have to see how open market currency in Pakistan will get affected under these circumstances. This bailout package will have a good impact on country’s economy and rupee will get a chance to increase its value or maintain its value for some time.
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